How we got here.
2018 to present. Every event sourced.
US-Iran tensions span decades: the 1953 CIA coup, the 1979 revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988, cycles of sanctions and proxy conflicts. This timeline begins at the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal, the most direct chain of events leading to the current war.
For broader context: Council on Foreign Relations: US-Iran Relations, 1953-2024
The Trump administration withdraws the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran. At the time of withdrawal, Iran is in compliance with the deal.
Iran starts enriching uranium beyond the levels permitted under the JCPOA, stating this is a response to the US withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of Iran's nuclear weapons research program, is killed by a remote-controlled machine gun in Absard, east of Tehran. Israeli operatives had reportedly surveilled him for eight months. This follows a series of assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in 2010 and 2012, which reportedly ended in 2013 under Obama administration pressure during nuclear negotiations.
The Biden administration expresses intent to re-enter the JCPOA. After more than two years of intermittent negotiations, no deal is reached. Remaining JCPOA provisions begin to expire in late 2023.
Israeli strikes hit a consular building in the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, killing 16 people including senior IRGC commanders.
Iran launches hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel after giving 72 hours' notice to regional countries. Most projectiles are intercepted.
Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas, is assassinated in Tehran, Iran.
Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah) and Abbas Nilforoushan (IRGC) are killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Iran launches approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, calling it "self-defense" retaliation for the assassinations.
Israel strikes missile and drone manufacturing facilities and air defenses inside Iran. Iran reports 4 soldiers and 1 civilian killed.
First round of US-Iran indirect negotiations held in Muscat, Oman. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi communicate through Omani mediators. Five rounds of indirect talks follow.
The IAEA reports Iran has acquired enough enriched uranium to produce nine nuclear warheads. The White House declares Iran has two months to secure a deal.
The IAEA Board of Governors passes a resolution (drafted by the US, UK, France, and Germany) declaring Iran non-compliant with nuclear obligations. First such declaration since 2005.
Israel launches surprise strikes on dozens of Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, and infrastructure. More than 200 fighter jets drop 330+ munitions on approximately 100 targets. At least 14 nuclear scientists are killed. Israel publicly claims responsibility. The US also conducts airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities during this conflict.
Iran and Yemen's Houthis launch ballistic missiles at Israel, hitting buildings in Bat Yam, Rehovot, a mall in Kiryat Ekron, and Tel Aviv. Nine killed, approximately 200 injured.
Trump declares a ceasefire on Truth Social, claiming the US has achieved its objectives of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The E3 triggers the UN snapback mechanism, citing Iran's "significant non-performance" of JCPOA commitments: enrichment beyond civilian needs, lack of transparency, and restricted IAEA access.
The JCPOA was scheduled to terminate remaining sanctions on this date. Instead, Iran officially announces the termination of the agreement. China, Iran, and Russia challenge the legality of the snapback, arguing the E3 had themselves ceased performing their JCPOA obligations.
Nationwide protests over soaring prices after the rial plunges. Demonstrators demand fundamental political change.
Iran shuts down the internet nationwide. Security forces open fire on protesters. Verified footage shows forces shooting from rooftops with rifles and shotguns, targeting heads and torsos.
Death toll figures vary widely:
- 3,117: Iranian government
- 6,126: Activist estimates (NPR)
- 7,007 confirmed, 11,744 under review: HRANA
- 30,000-36,500: Iran International and other outlets
Trump addresses Iranian protesters: "Keep protesting. Take over your institutions. Help is on its way."
Trump announces a US "armada" heading to the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group and guided-missile destroyers.
Six IRGC Navy gunboats attempt to seize the US tanker Stena Imperative in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker continues under escort of USS McFaul.
Three rounds of indirect nuclear talks fail to produce a diplomatic resolution. Iran wants talks confined to civilian nuclear guarantees. The US demands inclusion of missile programs, regional proxies, and human rights.
Trump accuses Iran of reviving nuclear weapons efforts and advancing missile capabilities threatening the US, Europe, and US bases.
High-stakes US-Iran talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman, end without agreement.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed.
A strike hits a girls' elementary school in Minab, killing approximately 165 people, mostly girls aged 7-12. The school was built on a former IRGC base that had been closed 15 years prior. Both the US and Israel initially deny involvement. CNN analysis and NBC reporting later indicate the US was likely responsible.
Iran launches drones and ballistic missiles at Israel and US military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. At least 10 killed in Israel. A girl is killed in Kuwait from shrapnel.
An Iranian drone strikes a makeshift operations center at a port in Kuwait. Six US service members are killed. Their remains are returned to Dover Air Force Base on March 7.
Following Khamenei's killing, Hezbollah launches strikes on Israel. Israel responds with strikes on Beirut and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon. At least 217 killed and 798 wounded in Israeli attacks across Lebanon through March 8.
Iran's IRGC announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening any ship that passes through. Tanker traffic drops to approximately zero. 150+ ships anchor outside the strait. 13 million barrels/day (31% of all seaborne crude) normally transit the strait.
Secretary of State Rubio states the US knew Israel was going to strike and launched preemptive attacks to protect US forces: "We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action... and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties." Rubio later walks back these statements.
The Washington Post reports the administration has offered shifting rationales for the strikes: regime change, preemption, eliminating nuclear and missile programs. The Arms Control Association notes the administration has not provided evidence Iran was close to a nuclear weapon. The IAEA states it has no evidence Iran has a nuclear weapons program.
Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, the largest US military hospital outside the US, suspends its labor and delivery ward "until further notice," citing the need to prioritize combat casualty care.
The Senate votes 53-47 against a resolution to constrain the president's war authority. The House follows on March 5, voting 219-212 against.
An Iranian ballistic missile heading toward NATO member Turkey is intercepted. First time NATO territory has received incoming fire from Iran. Both NATO Secretary General Rutte and Defense Secretary Hegseth rule out Article 5 invocation. Iran denies firing the missile toward Turkey.
Treasury Secretary Bessent states the largest phase of the bombing campaign has not yet occurred.
Army Sgt. Benjamin Pennington, wounded March 1 at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, becomes the 7th US combat death. Separately, the Pentagon discloses that approximately 140 service members have been wounded since the war began. Of those, 108 have returned to duty; 8 remain in serious condition.
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is named Iran's new supreme leader. He launches Iran's first wave of missiles under his command. Oil surges past $120/barrel before falling back. World markets plunge: Nikkei drops 5.2%, South Korea's KOSPI triggers a circuit breaker.
Defense Secretary Hegseth announces March 10 will be the most intense day of strikes inside Iran, claiming 90% of Iran's missile launch capacity has been destroyed. CENTCOM reports 5,000+ targets struck in 10 days. Hours later, Trump signals a "near-complete" diplomatic breakthrough. Iran's IRGC responds: "Iran will determine when the war ends."